By: Peter Linskey | Twitter: @Izzy_Legit
So for once, the Minnesota Gopher Football team hires the
“hot name” in coaching to revitalize the program and bring them back to
relevancy. These should be exciting times that any fan should be happy about!
Unfortunately I am not any fan. Through my 20 years of cheering for Gopher Football, I likely have lived through the dark ages of this program.
From the 21 point 4th quarter collapse against Michigan in 2002, the
game winning blocked punt against Wisconsin in 2005, and of course the debacle
that was the Tim Brewster coaching era, it’s no wonder I am a little skeptical
for the future.
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| Photo Courtesy of Sports Illustrated |
With the announcement that P.J. Fleck will become the new
head of coach of the Golden Gophers I had this overwhelming feeling of “Here we
go again.” While he may be dubbed the next generation of elite college football
coaches, I’m just not that convinced. For starters he is coming from the
Mid-American Conference (MAC) which has recently been a breeding ground for
BIG10 institutions to look for their next football coach. Unfortunately, the
MAC hasn’t really produced that many coaches that have succeeded in
these higher profile positions. And before you say, “But what about Urban Meyer
(Bowling Green) and Nick Saban (Toledo),” just stop. Meyer’s stint in the MAC
was only two years all the way back when Will Smith was considered a chart topping Hip-Hop
artist. Saban only coached at Toledo for one year back in 1990. And if you say anything that happened back in 1990
is still relevant to the sports world today, then you can take your Jheri Curls
and VHS copy of Die Hard 2 and get out of here. So for the sake of argument I
am only going to look as far back as 2010 for conference stats, and MAC coaches
that were given other opportunities at larger institutions.
First off, we need to stop over valuing the talent level
of MAC football. If someone goes 13-0 or 12-1 in the MAC, it’s not necessarily
because they have a great coaching acumen or their team competes at an elite
level. instead, it’s most likely because they play in the MAC. Since 2010 no MAC team has
had an above average Strength of Schedule (SOS). Not even close! In fact the
last MAC team to just have an average SOS was Ball State back in 2005. Comparing that
to what Fleck will be taking over, Minnesota hasn’t had a below average SOS since
2007. Dominating in the MAC doesn’t even come close to what it takes to even
compete in the BIG10.
Now, pointing out that the BIG10 is harder to compete in
than the MAC isn’t really proclaiming any bold predictions. So,
let’s take a look and see how some MAC coaches have fared after getting
promoted to the BIG10 conference:
-
Brady
Hoke: Coached six years at Ball State where he posted a 34-38
record. After posting a 12-1 record (and only have two winning seasons total)
he moved onto the open position at San Diego St. From there we all know Brady
moved onto Michigan in 2011. While he did post a surprising 11 win season in his first
year, Hoke had difficulties staying above .500, and never beat that rival to
the North in his next three seasons.
-
Darrell
Hazel: Coached two years at Kent State with a 16-10 record. Hired by
Purdue in 2013, Hazel would go on to win only 9 games the next 4 years (and 4
of those wins came against lower FCS opponents). Needless to say his tenure in the conference can only be described as a complete disaster.
-
Tim
Beckman: Coached three years at Toledo leading them to a 21-16 record
over that span. After back to back 8-4 regular season records, he was hired by
Illinois and would only win 4 conference games the next three seasons.
-
Bill
Cubit: Ironically, another MAC coach was waiting in the wings after
Illinois fired Beckman, when they promoted Cubit from Offensive Coordinator
to be the new leader of the team. Cubit Coached at Western Michigan for eight
years, and was able to sustained a .500 record in that span until they let him go after a 4 win season. Perhaps all Bill
needed was a fresh start and new scenery to get his career going again.
Unfortunately, Illinois only won two conference games that year and Cubit was
fired at the end of the season.
-
Jerry
Kill: Coached three years at Northern Illinois before leaving for
Minnesota (hey I thought I recognized this guy’s name!) after posting a 10-3
record for the Huskies in 2010. Hard to
say what would have happened if Jerry hadn’t retired due to health reasons, but
he was well on his way to being one of the successful MAC coaches to join
the BIG10 after leading Minnesota to repeat 8-5 records.
Needless to say, there are at least
3-4 recent cases pointing against the idea that a MAC coach can transition to a
new position in the BIG10 and be successful.
But what’s done, is done. Fleck is
going to be our new head coach weather I like it or not – which honestly I am
still up in the air about. My main concern in hiring him is that I really only
see two possible outcomes for the program moving forward:
1)
Fleck comes in and completely turns this program
around. We face off against now perennial
PAC-12 power house Washington Huskies in the 2021 Rose Bowl, which we ultimately
lose in heart wrenching fashion (duh). That off-season, Fleck is another hot
name tied to multiple high profile coaching vacancies such as Notre Dame - Brian Kelly’s head exploded while screaming at his Freshman QB who threw 7
interceptions in one game - and Alabama - Nick Saban forced to "step down" after a nasty
civil case brought against him by former offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin accusing
Saban of traumatic cyber bullying. Fleck takes one of those positions and we are stuck again
looking for a new head coach.
2)
Fleck lives up to his MAC coaching pedigree and
sucks on the big stage. We release him after another humiliating 17th
straight loss to Wisconsin and we are left again searching for the coach of the
future to bring us to the promise land. All while Fleck rows off into the sunset with a fat buyout from the University that foolishly gave him a 10 year extension after a average 8-6 record in his first season at The U.
Anyway you cut it, get ready to hop back on the coaching
search express by January 2021.
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| Photo Courtesy of Yahoo Sports |
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