Since it is post Valentines Day, we can now officially start our "Bubble Watch" for March Madness. So what does every Big Ten Team need to do before Greg Gumbel either makes dreams come true, or breaks their hearts on Selection Sunday? Let's take a look and see.
Wisconsin (22-2/10-1) - 1st - Their main goal should be to stay healthy. They are pretty much guaranteed to win at least 4 games of the final 6 giving them with a win total of 26, and most likely the regular season conference championship. Both will pretty much guarantee them a #1 or #2 seed in the tourney. They've had some injury issues this year and the further in the March they get, the harder and more physical the games will become. They will need everyone in tip top shape if they want another shot at a national title.
Maryland (20-5/8-4) - 2nd - Doesn't have to do too much more to punch their ticket to the dance. Will most likely end up with 3-4 more wins, plus a couple in the Big Ten Tournament. With only one real "signature win" it would be a nice confidence booster for them to beat Wisconsin but it's not really required.
Ohio State (19-6/8-4) - 3rd - Probably need at least 4-5 more wins to punch their ticket. What they need to do it to keep their stud Freshman guard D'Angelo Russell involved. He is really the only solid offensive weapon they have, and without him, it can get rough for them in the half court. Need to ride that stud while they have him for this one year before he (most likely) turns pro.
Purdue (16-9/8-4) - 4th - Need to win at least 4-5 out of their last 6 plus a few more in the Big Ten Tourney. With those few remaining wins, they most likely need to beat both Ohio State and Indiana to give them selves a solid resume. They've been a confusing team this season. Some games they just don't play to their strength's (defense turning into fast break points). If they can get back to that formula, they'll end up fine.
Michigan St (16-8/7-4) -5th - This phrase feels weird to say, but Tom Izzo has a pretty average team this year. They still do what all good Spartan team have done in the past (rebound and solid team play) but they just don't have the talent of previous years. They'll still most likely make the tourney, but still will need 4-5 more wins, and a couple of resume building wins. They'll get the chance with games against Ohio State and the Badgers, which will both be almost must wins to Izzo and his squad.
Indiana (17-8/7-5) - 6th - Indiana has been a real surprise of the season. They've started out strong but have faded in the last few games. They are a live by the three type of team and will have to keep shooting the lights out in order to make post season play. If they win 5 out of next 6, I'd say they'll lock up a spot.
Illinois (17-8/7-5) - 7th - Illinois is an interesting case for a tournament bid. They're not really a bad team, but not a really good one either. They need a couple more signature wins. My guess is they don't have the horses to close out strong and will flutter the remainder of the season.
Iowa (15-9/6-5) - 8th - In true Iowa fashion, they build you up only to break your heart. Also in true Iowa fashion, they will end the season with the easiest schedule in the conference. Of their remaining 7 games, 5 of them are against the worst 4 teams in the conference (combined record 12-47 in conference play). If they play to even half of their potential, they'll run the table and play their way into the post season
Michigan (13-12/6-7) - 9th - It's not surprising Michigan is having a down year, but it's to be expected since they've lost 5 players to the NBA in the past two seasons. Their post season hopes are very rapidly deteriorating. They really only have one option for making post season play. Win the Big Ten Tournament and claim that automatic bid.
Minnesota (16-9) 10th - In my opinion, the biggest disappointment of the season (may be a little biased). After starting 0-5, they've boasted one of the conferences best records going 5-2. They'll need to keep that up if they want to make March Madness. They'll need to win 4 of their remaining 6 (must beat Wisconsin once) and win a few games in the Big Ten Tournament.
Nebraska (13-11/5-7) - 11th - Nebraska is in a similar boat as Michigan. With a poor overall record, they'll need another crazy run like they had last year to slide their way over the bubble and into the tournament. If they win 4 out of their last 6 (with wins over Maryland, Ohio State and Maryland again) plus a finals appearance in the big Ten Tournament, that might give them a chance, however slim.
Penn State (15-10/3-9) - 12th - Again, not a whole lot to say here. With games against Ohio State, Iowa and Minnesota, they could play a real significant role of spoiler for a few promising teams. Try to play spoiler, that's really all they can hope for.
Rutgers (10-16/2-11) - 13th - Somehow, Wisconsin has their only loss in conference play to this team. If they really want to show they're fans that their taking the next step into being competitive in a major conference, they need to beat a mediocre Michigan team on the road.
Northwestern (10-14/1-10) - 14th - Try to play spoiler, that's really all they can do. They have a lot of games against on the bubble teams. If they burst a few bubbles along the way, it may make another poor conference showing a little more palatable.
What I think will happen:
Many experts think the Big Ten will get 7 teams into March Madness, I think that is a little high. More realistically they'll get 5-6 teams. Wisconsin is a no brainier. After that, there are about 8 teams that will battle for the final 4-5 spots. Here is who I think will make it.
1. Wisconsin - Only true "elite" team in conference this year.
2. Maryland - Solid squad with good resume. May be able to surprise people and make it to Sweet 16
3. Ohio State - Very athletic and have a stud freshman that can take over games.
4. Iowa - With a VERY easy schedule to end the season and a solid non conference road win against North Carolina, Iowa will get the nod from the selection committee.
5. Michigan St. - Even with an average team by his standards, Izzo will pull it together and at least give his team a chance to make some noise in March
6. Purdue - Will be on and off the "bubble" for the next few weeks but will find itself on the right sidewhen all is said and done.
