Thursday, January 12, 2012

Robert Griffin III Declares for NFL Draft

The 2012 Heisman Award Winner Robert Griffin III (RG3) declared for the NFL draft earlier this week and it didn't take long for analysts to make predictions on the future of his NFL career. Both Bill Simons of ESPN and Comman Man of KFAN 100.3 have said they believe RG3 will be a better draft choice than the presumed #1 pick Andrew Luck. I mean they make a good point. Griffin threw for more yards, had a better completion percentage, ranked 1st in the country for yards per completion, equaled Luck in TD passes with 37 (also adding 9 more on the ground compared to Luck's 2) and threw less interceptions than Luck. So the data is there, but football isn't played by statistics. If that were true, then the Steelers should have rolled over Denver in last weeks Wild Card Playoff game.



In my opinion, if we are looking only long term results (meaning look 10-13 years down the road), I feel that Andrew Luck will be the better QB in the end. I will admit that for the first few years (years 1-3), RG3 will look better only because he will be able to cover up some of his rookie year mistakes but escaping pressure with his feet and simply being an athletic freak, where Luck will instead try to use his arm to get out of trouble resulting in more interception early on. But as Luck progresses and grows, I feel he will have a hirer ceiling than RG3.

One thing that really scares me about Griffin is his uncanny resemblance to a certain Michael Vick. Now I think Griffin seems to be a good kid and will stay out of trouble (he graduated with a 3.67 GPA in political science and is currently studying for a Masters in Communication) but his play style and physical traits that have NFL scouts drooling I feel have already been played out by Vick. RG3 is listed as 6'2'' 220 lbs. Vick is listed as 6'0'' 215. Now while RG3 is taller and heavier than Vick, I still the chance of Griffin having the same problem that has plagued Vick throughout his career where he has only played one complete 16 game season.

So to conclude, I feel that while Griffin is no slouch when it comes the Quarterback position, and that he has a good chance to be a SOLID player, my gut just keeps telling me that Andrew Luck will live up to the hype and be the next GREAT quarterback in the league.

So what are your feelings on RG3? Where do you think he'll get drafted? How do you think he'll do short term? Long term?

2 comments:

  1. Common just tries to get a rise out of people by siding with opinions that are against the grain for his "reeling 'em in" bit. Usually I would trust analysts opinions on players who are entering the draft but there are only a couple who I trust with opinions and forecasting of quarterbacks, and those are the guys who have played the position at a high level like Todd McShay, or Kurt Warner. I wouldn't trust guys like Mel Kiper Jr. or Bill Simmons.

    Quarterback, unlike other positions in football, has a lot of immeasurable qualities that can't be analyzed on tape. Is he a hard worker? Does he have poise? Is he a leader? Even the interviews at the combine can't tell you a ton about their character because they have months to prepare for the types of questions that they are going to field.

    That's why I would trust only analysts who have played the quarterback position in the past. They can tell which of these players are for real and which are not. Andrew Luck will be a better pro in my opinion. He has shown that his success is sustainable. RG3 didn't really come on to the scene until this past season. However guys like Cam Newton proved that you can be successful with that.

    I believe RG3 will go in the first round, probably top 10. However, his success is going to be determined by whether or not the right coaching staff gets their hands on him and develops him properly. Even with that he is probably an average to above average pro at best.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Where are the NFL divional predictions?! Get on it PCL, games start tomorrow

    ReplyDelete